After all the – the meeting of the Chummiy Oval Office, the extraordinary royal invitation, the Paeans in the “special relationship” – Great Britain and his concerned Prime Minister Keir Starrer, were still thrown into the tariffs of President Trump together with the European Union and other great American trading partners.
Mr. Trump imposed his basic tariff of 10 percent on Great Britain, while he met the European Union with 20 percent. This has drawn sigh of the relief of Mr. Starrer Adjutanten, who said the difference would protect thousands of British jobs. They applied for a justification for Mr. Starrer's magic of magic to the American president; Others said it was a dividend of the British decision to leave the European Union in 2016.
In a different sense, however, it was a pyrrhical victory: Great Britain was exposed to the same flat rate as dozens of countries, although, according to US statistics, the United States perform a trade surplus with Great Britain.
Great Britain clearly hopes to conclude a kind of trade agreement with Mr. Trump, which could save him the permanent effect of the tariffs. On Thursday, Mr. Strandmer told the managers that the British would react with “cool and calm heads”.
The question is whether he will adhere to his strategy – for example the pressure to impose retaliation tariffs – or to meet with other countries like Canada against the United States. The Downing Street said that it would not impose title-for-tat measures while the trading talks were underway.
“So far, his strategy was completely understandable,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economy and public order at King's College London. “If I were he, I would have done the same. Now he has to avoid it for reasons, but it also makes no sense in the appeasement.”
Professor Portes said that targeted retaliation measures could be useful as a negotiation tactic. A comprehensive tariff for American goods, he said, would only deepen the damage to the British economy, which announced his measures on Wednesday before Mr. Trump's stuttering.
Great Britain has a negotiation chips, including reducing an existing 2 percent tax to digital services. Professor Portes said that Great Britain could play hardball in other ways -for example against X, the social media platform by Elon Musk, Mr. Trump's ally. Critics have accused the platform of promoting hate speeches while Musk X used to camp against the government of Mr. Starmer.
If Mr. Trump no longer pulls out anything from Mr. Trump after all his efforts, it could embarrass him politically. Analysts, however, said the greater threat was the effect on the slowly growing economy of the UK. The office for budget responsibility, an independent fiscal guard, said Tit-for-Tat tariffs could reduce the British economy by 1 percent next year. It had forecast growth of 1.9 percent.
Great Britain's finances are already under extreme pressure. The Chancellor of the state treasury, Rachel Reeves, increased taxes to the employer and plans great social welfare decrees to cover the expenditure for exhausted services and to fulfill their promise to compensate for the budget and reduce debts.
Great Britain with its small, open economy is deeply susceptible to the effects of a trade war. British officials, led by the ambassador in Washington, Peter Mandelson, vigorously negotiated with the White House to avert these tariffs. They did not return against former tariffs on steel and aluminum or against vehicles that came into force on Thursday.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Minister of Commerce, who was involved in the talks, said the keyword was “pragmatism”. On Tuesday, he informed the BBC that Great Britain was in the “best possible position of a country” to reverse the tariffs.
Great Britain either runs a trade surplus of $ 89 billion or a deficit of 14.5 billion US dollars compared to the United States, depending on whether you cite British or American statistics. (The difference is partly based on how the two sides deal with offshore finance centers such as Jersey and Guernsey, which are crown dependencies.) Trump trade is relative with goods with which Mr. Trump is most fixed.
The British exporters who confronted around the subway include the luxury car industry, since car manufacturers such as Jaguar, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin have no assembly facilities in the USA. According to customs data, more than 40,000 British companies exported to the USA in 2023.
Mr. Starrer faces a delicate calculation to decide how to react to Mr. Trump. In view of the unpopularity of the President in Great Britain, analysts said that Mr. Starrer and his Labor Party could use a short -term benefit through retaliation.
“If he stood against Trump, it may fit what he tried to do what the patriotic party has to do,” said Steven Fielding, emeritus professor of political history at the University of Nottingham.
It would also distance the work of Reform UK, an anti-immigrant party, whose guide Nigel Farage has close relationships with Mr. Trump. And it would enable Mr. Starrer to get closer to the European Union, which is expected to impose his own countermeasures.
The reaction to Mr. Trump could “be political at short notice,” said Professor Fielding, but for Mr. Starrer in the long term, “any kind of tariff war could damage the economy, which will impair its prospects to re -election”.