A satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
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As oil traders around the world scoured satellite images and official statements for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm appears to have taken a different approach: It says it has sent an analyst directly to the conflict zone.
Citrini Research, which issued a market-shattering bearish view on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it had dispatched an analyst to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, where the person traveled by boat, to observe shipping activity firsthand amid escalating tensions between Iran and the United States.
Instead, the analyst, whom the company did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, noted that ships are still moving through the strait and traffic has increased to about 15 ships per day in recent days, according to the company’s report published on Substack. Although the flow is well below normal levels, it suggests that the disturbance is partial and evolving rather than absolute.
“Tankers pass four or five a day, completely dark on the AIS. The volume is higher than the data suggests and has accelerated through the Qeshm Channel in the last few days,” Citrini’s post said.
AIS is a vessel tracking system that transmits a vessel’s location, speed, identity and route. Citrini claims that the actual shipping volume is higher than the reported data because many ships turned off their transponders and are not visible on official tracking systems.
Citrini did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Based on the Substack post, the analyst’s interviews with fishermen, smugglers and regional officials suggest a system in which Iran selectively allows ships to pass through. Tankers must obtain permission before crossing waters near Iranian territory, creating what the company described as a “functional checkpoint” rather than a blockade, Citrini said in his post.
“This should make it clear that what we have described as our view of the conflict is nuanced – it does not fit neatly into ‘Strait Open Crude Down’ or ‘Strait Closed Raw Parabolic,'” the company said.
Of course, the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal reports, which are difficult to independently verify, especially given the limited transparency in the region.
The company said it expects a prolonged disruption that will result in a permanent risk premium in oil markets. This view underpins a preference for longer-term crude oil exposure, with the firm favoring December 2026 WTI contracts over the first month.
“We expect the disruption to be prolonged and the new normal to impose a permanent risk premium, but that within the next four to six weeks we will likely see up to 50% of pre-conflict traffic,” Citrini said.
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