Since the trees were planted, every day has been a game of dice.
Unlike commodities like corn and soybeans, which Mr. Wyckoff grows on another 90 acres he owns, there is no good way to insure Christmas trees against the damage caused by extreme weather or the effects of a foreign war or pandemic, which is bringing supply chains to a standstill, he added.
“Farmers are the biggest players there are,” said Wyckoff, 57. His family has been growing Christmas trees in Belvidere, New Jersey, about a 90-minute drive from midtown Manhattan, since his grandfather started the business in the 1950s.
Christmas trees grow slowly, about 12 to 14 inches per year, and can take 10 years to go from seed to harvest. Most of the trees he plants are 3 to 5 years old when he buys them from nurseries.
To keep up with costs, Mr. Wyckoff increased the price of his trees this year to $15 a foot, or $105 for a seven-foot tree, up from $14 a foot last year. A decade ago, similar trees sold for $10 a foot, he said. The trees he sells include the popular Fraser fir, Norway spruce, and Canaan and Douglas fir.
Despite the risks, the trees remain Mr. Wyckoff's most profitable crop. He expects to sell 7,000 copies this year, up from 5,000 last year.
“We're in a boom period right now,” said Tim O'Connor, executive director of the National Christmas Tree Association. Before the pandemic, supply was tight, and then demand increased for trees that customers could pick and trim themselves outdoors.
According to the most recent federal data available, there were 15,000 Christmas tree farms nationwide with sales of over $376 million in 2017. Bert Cregg, a professor of horticulture at Michigan State University and an industry expert, said farmers could make a 50 percent profit on each tree. Mr. Wyckoff said his profit was closer to 20 percent per tree.
Some costs have increased sharply for Wyckoff's Christmas Tree Farm. Almost all of Mr. Wyckoff's equipment runs on diesel fuel; He paid $4.70 a gallon this year, up from $2.36 in 2018.
Climate change increases the risk that it could lose huge swathes of trees. Of the 10,000 he planted this year, 5,500 were lost to drought and floods. That cost him at least $27,500. In a typical year, he could lose 5 to 10 percent of his new trees.
The work is relentless. There are three full-time employees on the farm, but at peak times up to 40 seasonal workers take turns. Three large mowers ($20,000 each) cut weeds each season, trees are trimmed twice a year, and pests and diseases are monitored daily.
Mr. Wyckoff said he saved money by hiring high school students, getting help from local hunters and recruiting family members. His wife, Leslie, handles the bookkeeping, his aunt, Judy, enjoys mowing, and his 23-year-old son, Johnny, also works on the farm.
The family's trees have won awards in national competitions and decorated the White House, Wyckoff said. The family has met Michelle Obama and former Vice President Mike Pence and his wife.
Although Mr. Wyckoff and industry experts have some concerns about the risk of another downturn if demand falls, business is currently doing well.
Hector Ruiz, 75, recently drove from Stuyvesant Town in Manhattan in search of a Fraser fir. He walked with a tree that was barely five feet tall. Most of the larger copies were sold out.
“But I’m coming back to get those trees right there,” he said, pointing to fir trees still in the ground and reserved for next year.
Produced by Eden Weingart, Andrew Hinderaker and Dagny Salas. Development by Gabriel Gianordoli and Aliza Ehrlich.