A look at the turbines in Orsted's offshore wind park near Nysted, Denmark, September 4, 2023.
Tom Little | Reuters
President Donald Trump promised to unleash the US energy dominance, but his comprehensive implementation regulation, which aims at wind power, consists of a pipeline of projects that would generate sufficient electricity for millions of American houses.
The order, who issued Trump in office on his first day of the office, made new offshore wind lease agents in the US coastal waters for an indefinite period and stopped new approvals until a review was completed. The order endangers proposed projects on the east coast, which have received a total of 32 gigawatt electricity, according to the data of the consulting company Aurora Energy Research.
“At the moment it is really difficult to see how one of these projects will be able to get ahead,” said Artem Abramov, head of the new Energy Research at the Rystad. As with Aurora, Rystad estimates that around 30 gigawatts of projects on the US East coast are at risk.
If they were realized, these projects would provide sufficient combined performance for more than 12 million houses in the USA, according to CNBC analysis of data from the energy information management. According to Aurora, the order is not expected to have a total of around 5 gigawatts.
Trump has to give up the obligations that were carried out during the bid administration to combat climate change and to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time. He focused on increasing the production of fossil fuels and increasing the US coastal waters on the day on which he withdraws these waters for wind.
Trump's command will endanger the efforts of the states in the middle Atlantic and northeast to move away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their electrical network, said Abramov. For example, New York, New Jersey and Virginia have pursued ambitious goals for clean energy at the state level. But they are too far north to rely on solar with a power supply, said Abramov.
“If you want to reach the future in which electricity generation in New York, New Jersey or Virginia is completely fossil -free, there are not so many alternatives to the offshore wind,” said Abramov.
According to Rystad and Aurora, the order could ultimately force itself to rely more on natural gas with carbon agents. For a state like New York, however, it is practically impossible to achieve its climate goals and to ensure adequate energy supply, especially in the duration of the state of New York City, without offshore wind, said Julia Hoos, the Useast Division of Aurora guides.
Power projects that are waiting in line to produce the electrical network in New York in New York in New York by 2027 are almost exclusively wind and gear, said Hoos.
“In the next 18 to 24 months there is practically no way to bring new gas online, unless there is a significant reform or there is a kind of fast route to bring the gas online so that you really encounter reliability problems can “, said Hoos.
But probably in the decade on the back of Trump's guidelines, more natural gas production will probably be built, said Hoos. The mood of the investors shifted before the election results towards the gas, which was partly due to the need for reliable authority to satisfy the demand from data centers for artificial intelligence, said Abramov.
Immediate effects
Two weeks after Trump's command, New Jersey decided against the further development of the Atlantic Shores project, which was the first offshore wind development of the state. The state pension authority cited “uncertainty that was driven by federal actions and permits” and the European oil major Sleeve Pull out of the project.
“The offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges and is now the time for patience and wisdom,” said governor Phil Murphy in a statement that supports the decision of the board of directors.
Murphy, who has set himself the goal of reaching 100% clean energy in New Jersey by 2035. “
Offshore -Wind in the USA “more or less has come to a standstill with immediate effect” Vestas Wind Energy Systems CEO Henrik Andersen told investors about the company's profit call on February 5. Denmark's Vestas is one of the world's leading leaders in the manufacture and maintenance of wind turbines.
Industry overwind
Trump's command deepens the challenges of an industry that was exposed to an uncertain view after years after years after years.
According to the energy information management, wind has risen from 2.4 gigawatts in the United States over the past 25 years to 150 gigawatts until April 2024. The generation of wind made a record this month and exceeded coal power. Wind currently accounts for around 11% of the total US current generation.
However, the industry fought against the bottlenecks of the supply chain and high interest rates. Offshore -Wind was already the most expensive form of renewable energies, said Abramov. Due to the challenges of building water, developers in the United States were, in contrast to land, said Hoos.
“The industry hoped that the costs would decrease,” said Abramov. “We have seen no projects in the United States that were able to achieve lower energy costs.”
The world's largest offshore wind developer from Denmark, Orsted, decided on February 5 to hand over his goal of installing up to 38 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. From 210 to 230 billion Danish crowns (approx. $ 29 billion to $ 32 billion), compared to 270 billion crowns before.
Orsted's Wind and Revolution Wind projects by Sunrise, which are under construction off the coast of New York and New England, should not be influenced by Trump's command, said CEO Rasmus Errboe that the company's profit call on February 6th of the company of the company. However, future developments can be at risk.
“We endeavor to drive them forward and comply with our obligations,” said Erboe. “We do not expect the executive order to have any effects on assets, but of course on assets that are in development, may be a different situation.”
The order should also not have an impact from the offshore wind of coasts in Virginia, the largest project that is under construction in the United States with 2.6 gigawatt electricity, Robert Blue, CEO from Dominion Energy, told investors on 12 . February of the supply company.
“It would be the greatest inflationary measures that could be taken in Virginia in terms of energy, “said Blue.”
Looking for clarity
In the explanation of Trump's command by Trump from the wind industry American Clean Power, which in a declaration of January 20, a flat -rate measure is endangered, the development of the domestic energy is jeopardized and American companies and employees damage. The president's order contradicts the government's goal of reducing bureaucracy and unleashing energy generation, said Jason Grumet, CEO of ACP, in the explanation.
The ACP is now trying to clarify the Trump administration about how the executive regulation is implemented, said Frank Macchiarola, Chief Advocacy Officer of the group. For example, it is unclear if the review of the approval and leasing practices is completed, said Macchiarola.
A spokesman for the interior department only said that Trump's executive order department implemented when she was asked about comments on a detailed list of questions. When asked when the review of the approval and leasing practices will be completed, the spokesman said that an estimate would be hypothetical.
The wind industry is committed to working with the Trump administration, supports the president's advance on the agenda of energy dominance and makes the event that renewable energies play a key role in this agenda as the largest new electricity source in the USA, said Macchiarola.
“If earlier administrations have decided to suffocate the American energy development that was almost generally considered a mistake,” said Macchiarola.
It was also admitted to land winds until the review was set, but the part of the industry is unlikely that it is exposed to a significant influence, said Rystads Abramov. Wind farms are almost exclusively built on private and not on state, he said. The market is also already saturated and adding capacities largely depends on the first time, the analyst.
However, offshore wind is a much less mature market in the United States and was considered an important opportunity for growth for the industry, said Abramov. But that seems to change quickly.
“You do not see the United States as a market for a continuous offshore wind pansion as long as this order is available,” said the analyst.
– Gabriel Cortes from CNBC contributed to this report.