Bond market says interest rate cut by July is pretty much a lock


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The latest interest-friendly inflation report from Canada has once again led markets to believe that the Bank of Canada may begin cutting interest rates on June 5.

And we're not talking about a Lloyd Christmas-style probability here, but a solid 55 percent – higher than an everyday coin toss, if you believe the implicit interest rates in the bond market.

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The ever-volatile bond market suggests a rate cut is all but certain by July. But be prepared for the unexpected, as the Bank of Canada will receive a lot of data—including two more inflation reports—before it makes its next rate decision.

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There were two notable changes in the mortgage market this week. The lowest nationally advertised five-year insured fixed rate fell a whopping 10 basis points to 4.59 percent at Citadel Mortgages. More interestingly, the lowest advertised uninsured variable rate fell a whopping 41 basis points to 6.29 percent.

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As always, compare prices. Regional lenders in some provinces offer even lower variable interest rates, such as 6.15 percent at Butler Mortgage – for mortgages over $1 million, the rate drops to 6.05 percent.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, rates analyst, and editor of You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

Want to know more about the mortgage market? Read Robert McLister's new weekly column in the Financial Post and find out the latest trends and details on financing opportunities you can't miss.

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