Toronto home sales forecast to fall to level not seen in two decades

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Millicent Wong
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TRREB also forecasts that prices will rise this year but will still be lower than in 2022

A real estate sign outside a home in Toronto. A real estate sign outside a home in Toronto. Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales are set to fall to their lowest level since 2001 this year, despite a recovery in the second half, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) annual forecast.

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The group’s market outlook, released Feb. 10, says home sales will decline to a total of 70,000 sales in 2023, compared to 75,140 in 2022 and 121,712 in 2021. The total would be the lowest recorded in the TRREB MLS system since 2001 was tracked. when 67,612 sales were registered, according to historical data available on the group’s website.

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The Outlook also predicts that the median selling price for all home types combined will reach $1,140,000, which is higher than current levels but four percent below the median price of $1,189,912 in 2022.

While TREBB’s chief market analyst Jason Mercer said the first half of the year will feel similar to fall 2022 due to the ongoing impact of higher borrowing costs and related economic uncertainty, the second half will see lower levels thanks to rising demand for property Fixed-rate mortgage rates, a relatively robust labor market and record immigration.

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“2023 will be a year with two halves,” Mercer said in a press release accompanying the report.

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TREBB’s report cites an Ipsos study showing a slight year-on-year increase in overall purchase intentions. According to Ipsos, 28 percent of respondents said they would consider buying a home in 2023.

Those likely to list their townhomes this year are also up from last year, while intentions for condos and semi-detached listings are similar to 2022, it said. Single-family houses, on the other hand, seem to be on the decline.

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