Nasty News? Forget About It. The Markets Say All Is Well.

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Nasty News? Forget About It. The Markets Say All Is Well.

For example, in the three months through September, the S&P 500 stock index returned 8.1 percent, according to FactSet, and the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller stocks including dividends, returned 12.4 percent. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which tracks a broad index that includes all of these stocks but is heavily tilted toward the S&P 500, rose 8.3 percent in the quarter. These simple index returns outperform the average equity fund in relevant categories.

The index fund's outperformance continued over 12 months. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 17.6 percent and the Russell 2000 rose 10.8 percent, including reinvested dividends, according to FactSet. The Vanguard fund rose 17.4 percent, again significantly better than the average general domestic equity fund. And the Vanguard Total International Stock Market ETF, a simple index tracker, rose 6.9 percent in the quarter and 17.2 percent over 12 months, outperforming the average international fund.

Bond fund returns were positive but not exceptional. The average taxable fund returned 2.2 percent in the quarter and 5 percent over 12 months, Morningstar said. For municipal bond funds, the parallel returns were 2.7 percent and 1.2 percent.

Here's a selection of equity funds available in the U.S. across various domestic and international categories over three months and 12 months through September, according to Morningstar:

  • Technology stock funds: 13.2 percent for the quarter and 30.6 percent for 12 months.

  • Mixed funds with 50 to 70 percent stocks and the rest bonds: 4.9 percent for the quarter and 10.5 percent for 12 months.

  • Target funds 2030, which contain a mix of stocks and bonds and are aimed at people who want to retire in five years: 4.6 percent for the quarter and 11.3 percent for the year.

  • Means for the China region: 22.2 percent for the quarter and 29.7 percent for 12 months.

  • India Fund: -7 percent for the quarter and -11.2 percent for the year. The tariff dispute between Mr. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has hurt India's stock market more than many others.

  • Precious metal equity funds buoyed by rising gold prices: 41 percent for the quarter and 92.6 percent for 12 months.

Of course, some individual funds outperform the category average. (Some funds do this all the time, but vanishingly few do it consistently.) The sharp rise in gold prices drove the performance of three top funds this time around:

  • Profunds Precious Metals UltraSector, which tracks the Dow Jones Precious Metals gold mining stock index and boosts it with leverage that is essentially borrowed money: 75 percent for the quarter and 150 percent for 12 months.

  • US Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals, which invests primarily in mining and gold production stocks: 46.3 percent for the quarter and 96 percent for 12 months.

  • Franklin Gold and Precious Metals, which also invests in mining and gold production stocks: 45.7 percent for the quarter and 111.9 percent for 12 months.

Funds that track the prices of cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin, have also had great success. The largest of them, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, only returned 6.2 percent in the quarter but 80 percent in 12 months, according to FactSet.

While most fund returns have been welcome news for investors, the big question is: where are the markets headed now? And unfortunately no one knows.