US importers range from Goal To Walmartare due to receive more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court decision, while the Trump administration launches its claims filing portal on Monday.
Hopes are high for a smooth rollout of the system that will ease refunds, but companies and Wall Street analysts are tempering their expectations that companies will get the money back quickly.
Trade lawyers warn of bureaucratic hurdles, legal vulnerabilities and the possibility of a short-term appeal by the Trump administration.
“[Importers] are pessimistic that the government will just do this. They assume the government will make it as difficult as possible to get their money back,” said commercial attorney Matthew Seligman, a principal at Grayhawk Law.
“There is frustration because the Supreme Court has already ruled that these tariffs are unlawful,” he added.
The portal for customs refund applications opens on Monday
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will launch a customs claims submission portal — known as Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) — on Monday.
Importers can file a return in the system for the duties they paid under Trump’s now-invalided emergency tariff authority and then expect to receive “a consolidated refund amount,” according to the CBP. Reimbursement claims must undergo multiple validations, as shown in the program documents.
“The idea is that all importers who were affected and who paid tariffs should take advantage of this system, whether it’s Walmart or a local mom-and-pop store down the road…The way they described it makes it sound a lot more sensible than we expected,” said Stefan Reisinger, a partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.
“There is a level of pessimism in the importing community about whether this will actually work as described,” he said.
Retailers are demanding large refunds
Wall Street analysts are predicting huge refunds for blue-chip retailers.
According to an April 10 analysis from Citi Walmart $10.2 billion is due, Goal $2.2 billion is due and Nike could get $1 billion back. Refunds are also expected Kohl’s at $550 million, gap at $400 million and Macy’s At $320 million, the company noted.
Retailers could face large duty refunds
| ticker | Pursue | Estimated refund |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart | $10.2 billion |
| TGT | Goal | $2.2 billion |
| HD | Home Depot | 540 million dollars |
| KSS | Kohl’s | 550 million dollars |
| GAP | gap | 400 million dollars |
| FROM | Nike | 1 billion dollars |
Source: Citi
The refunds are unlikely to factor heavily into equity research teams’ future prospects, but in principle could result in one-off balance sheet increases in coming quarters or be used for share buybacks and debt repayments.
“When asked what might happen with the refund proceeds, most management teams said something like this: … ‘As refunds come in, we will consider all options for what to do with the cash. We will consider the company’s needs, share repurchases, debt repayment, or increasing our cash cushion on the balance sheet,'” Citi equity researchers wrote in their note.
Walmart CFO John David Rainey said he didn’t think the refund process would be quick.
“It seems very complex and, in a broader sense, probably not something that’s going to happen very quickly. We’ll certainly take advantage of the opportunity to get a refund, but when that happens remains to be seen,” he said at the JPMorgan Retail Round Up on April 8.
If refunds arrive as expected, they could be reflected in the company’s financials.
“From an accounting perspective, it would be recognized in profit or loss. So that’s a [profit and loss] Profit and loss benefits if and when we should receive that refund,” Rainey said.
However, the refunds could pose a legal vulnerability for the companies that claim them, trade lawyers said. That’s because many companies pushed through their cost increases, which led to an increase in overall consumer prices.
A January analysis by Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab found that retail tariff pass-through contributed “about 0.76 percentage points to the overall consumer price index through October 2025.”
“If [companies] Receiving refunds, what are the chances of this happening? [they’re] am being sued by both [their] direct or indirect customers?” said Reisinger.
Are additional tariffs planned?
Administration officials have been combative about restoring tariff rates through legal channels other than the emergency authority. Under consideration are Section 301 tariffs aimed at cracking down on “discriminatory” or “unfair” trade practices by U.S. trading partners.
“We had a setback at the Supreme Court on tariff policy, but we will implement or conduct Section 301 studies so that tariffs could be back to previous levels by early July,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Wall Street Journal event last week, as reported by Bloomberg.
Importers say they are concerned about upcoming Section 301 tariffs.
“We’re very concerned about this,” Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers, told CNBC on Thursday. “But even if they got ahead on that, I don’t think it would get to that level [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] IEEPA tariffs.”
The White House, Treasury Department and U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to CNBC’s questions about continued use of Section 301 tariffs.
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