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Maple syrup is stored by the barrel in Quebec's famous Strategic Maple Syrup Reserves
Canada's maple syrup reserves – the world's only – have hit a 16-year low, raising questions about the future of a globally popular sweet staple amid climate change.
Located in Quebec, the reserve is designed to store 133 million pounds of maple syrup each year.
But in 2023 the supply fell to 6.9 million pounds (3.1 million kg).
Experts attribute the shortage to both a surge in demand and warmer weather that has caused production disruptions.
However, they say this will not impact the availability or price of maple syrup for consumers, at least for now.
“The strategic reserve contains the lowest amount of maple syrup since 2008,” Simon Doré-Ouellet, deputy director general of the Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, told the BBC. “But we don’t expect any supply problems in the near future.”
Canada's multi-billion dollar maple syrup industry accounts for 75% of the world's total maple syrup production.
According to national data, much of it – around 90% – is produced in the province of Quebec, where the world's only strategic maple syrup reserve was created 24 years ago.
The amount of maple syrup in the national reserve – which is stored in tens of thousands of barrels in several warehouses across Quebec – has declined significantly since 2020. This year, there were more than 103 million pounds of the sticky product on the reservation.
Today the reserve amount is only 7% of the amount four years ago.
One of the reasons for this, said Mr Doré-Ouellet, was the poor harvest times in recent years.
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Watch: Maple Syrup's Bittersweet Future in the Face of Climate Change
Maple syrup production, which typically occurs between early March and late April, depends heavily on a delicate balance between nighttime temperatures below freezing and warmer daytime temperatures above 0°C (32°F).
The cold temperatures help the maple tree absorb water from the soil, while the warmer weather during the day creates pressure that pushes the water to the bottom of the tree, making sap harvesting easier.
In 2021 and 2023, warmer spring temperatures felt across the country resulted in a decline in maple syrup production, which fell 21% in 2021 compared to the previous year.
However, this decline came following two consecutive record production years, 2020 and 2019.
Mr Doré-Ouellet said fluctuations in the reserve's offerings were not unusual due to the unpredictability of the harvest.
“The strategic reserve was established to stabilize the highly weather-dependent supply for buyers,” he said. “For the last four years it has done just that.”
The poor harvest years are accompanied by increasing demand for the golden product.
In 2021, Canada exported 161 million pounds of maple syrup to 71 countries worldwide – an increase of more than 19% from the previous year.
Mr. Doré-Ouellet said the demand growth is linked to Quebec's efforts to promote Canadian maple syrup and its benefits in other countries, particularly the United States, Britain, Germany, Australia and Japan.
As reserves dwindle due to growing demand, many are excited to see how the upcoming harvest season will unfold.
Canada has endured one of its warmest winters on record. Temperatures in December, January and February were the warmest since records began in 1948.
Still, Mr. Doré-Ouellet said there was reason for optimism.
“The sugar season started early this year and is still ongoing,” he said. “So far, production has been plentiful and the weather forecast for the next few weeks across Quebec is encouraging.”
Because the reserve stabilizes the maple syrup market for producers and buyers, it is important to rebuild it, he said.
Efforts to do so are already underway, including the release of 14 million new taps to producers over the past three years to bolster harvest efforts, he said.
Mr. Doré-Ouellet noted that replenishing Canada's maple syrup supply is a “multi-year process,” adding that he believes the outcome of the 2024 season will not determine the future of Canada's most famous export.