Toronto average home price to rebound in 2024: TRREB

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The average selling price is expected to be the second highest ever

Published on February 9, 20243 minutes reading time

A real estate sign in front of a home in Toronto.A real estate sign in front of a home in Toronto. Photo by Evan Buhler/The Canadian Press Files

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According to an annual outlook released this week by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the average sales price of a home in Toronto is expected to rise again in 2024 and reach its second-highest level ever, sparking a multi-year recovery in the market.

TRREB forecasts that the average sales price for all residential properties sold in 2024 will reach $1,170,000, up 3.5 percent from 2023, but still below the peak of $1,189,850 from the The year is 2022.

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The report also predicts that sales will increase throughout the year, reaching 77,000 units after only 65,982 homes changed hands in 2023. The 2023 totals were 12 percent below 2022 and 45.7 percent below the 2021 record.

TRREB principal analyst Jason Mercer said the market is ready for more activity, but affordability remains an issue.

“Record population growth, a robust economy, low unemployment and falling mortgage rates in the second half of the year will lead to higher home sales compared to 2023,” Mercer said. “This will be the start of a multi-year recovery as some households will still face affordability issues even as borrowing costs trend down. “

Mercer said that as demand for housing increases, it is critical that the supply of homes for sale also increases accordingly. Additionally, construction of new homes is expected to increase to meet this demand.

TRREB President Jennifer Pearce said real relief from affordability problems can only be achieved by removing barriers to service and accelerating construction projects.

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“It is clear that lasting affordability relief will only be achieved in our regions if we remove the hurdles that stand in the way of progress and get shovels in the ground more quickly. “With a growing population, policymakers must not lose sight of forward planning and avoid applying stopgap solutions that often lead to bigger problems than the problems they are trying to solve,” Pearce said.

According to TRREB, accelerating construction projects is particularly important because survey data included in the report shows that a declining number of homeowners plan to list their properties for sale in 2024. The report notes a two percentage point decline compared to 2023, just 37 per cent, indicating they are likely to be added to the list.

Survey data also suggests that while overall purchase intentions have remained stable compared to last year, the share of respondents expressing a high likelihood of buying a home in 2024 is declining slightly.

TRREB Executive Director John DiMichele said addressing the region's housing crisis requires several critical actions that the board has long advocated for.

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“We need to quickly increase our supply and help first-time home buyers get relief from the significant upfront transfer tax,” DiMichele said. “Prioritizing Missing Middle housing will provide more diverse and affordable housing options – something we have long been calling for.”

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DiMichele said it is essential for all levels of government to work together and create appropriate incentives to encourage developers to build housing in different market segments.

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