The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday announced a new schedule for its data releases amid the government shutdown. Notably, the October jobs report is not published independently.
A portion of the October jobs report that surveys employers will release the November jobs report in mid-December, slightly later than originally planned, along with job turnover data. However, the agency said it cannot collect retrospective surveys of households that determine unemployment rates.
October data is expected to show negative employment growth as more than 100,000 federal employees participated in the deferred layoff program and officially retired from employment at the end of September.
The BLS announcement has significant implications for the Federal Reserve, whose officials will discuss whether to cut interest rates for the third straight day at their meeting next month.
Another rate cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting already appeared to be in jeopardy after Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell said at the last meeting in October that a cut was “anything but a given.” Since that meeting, policymakers have only grown more divided over what to do. After the BLS announced its updated schedule, traders reduced their bets that the Fed would cut interest rates next month.
Officials favoring further cuts appear to be particularly concerned about the slowdown in monthly job growth and the prospect of a rise in unemployment if the central bank does not provide relief. But there is a growing, vocal group of policymakers who are more worried about inflation and the impact of President Trump's tariffs, which have pushed up some consumer prices. These officials warn that further cuts in interest rates could exacerbate inflation and push the Fed's 2 percent target further out of reach.
Typically, new economic data would help resolve disagreements among policymakers. But based on the revised schedule, the Fed will have to forego much of it. The November jobs report – and part of the October report – won't be released until Dec. 16, about a week after the central bank is scheduled to vote on interest rates.
This will put even more emphasis on the September jobs report, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Also, another report will be released next week on the prices of goods and services that companies use to produce products for this month. The Labor Department did not say when or if it would release the consumer price index for October.
Never before has a government shutdown lasted so long that parts of the jobs report were irretrievably destroyed, and it is the first time in the survey's 77-year history that the Labor Department has not released an unemployment rate. It is difficult to collect the household survey much later than the intended sampling period because people do not always remember details of their employment situation, which could lead to bias.
The employer survey is easier to record later because companies, nonprofits, and government agencies typically keep better records. The answers will be collected up to two months later and the initial estimates will be revised accordingly.
The labor market data set released Thursday was collected before the government shutdown on Oct. 1 and just needed to be completed. Economists expect a slight increase of around 55,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.3 percent.