Amazon Proteus robots demonstrate autonomous navigation using barcodes on the floor during the Delivering the Future event at the Amazon Robotics Innovation Hub in Westborough, Massachusetts, U.S., Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022.
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Artificial intelligence is widening the productivity gap between large and small businesses, producing larger companies that are able to effectively scale technology and reduce the costs associated with human labor.
Since the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT model in 2022, large enterprises have seen consistent AI-driven productivity gains in terms of their real revenue per employee, according to Wells Fargo analysis. The firm noted that small-cap names experienced declines over the same period.
““While S&P 500 productivity is up 5.5% since ChatGPT, the Russell 2000 is down 12.3%,” Wells Fargo equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote in a recent note to clients. “We see other examples of different trends in consumer, industrial and financial markets.”
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Wells Fargo analysis comparing real sales per employee between the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices
Wells Fargo
Groundbreaking advances in AI have been made this year by major companies such as: Amazon to rely primarily on technology and find ways to eliminate human roles that can be replaced by AI machines.
The performance of the S&P 500 opposite that Russell 2000 The Small Cap Index reflects this divergence in productivity gains. The broad market index is up 74% since ChatGPT launched in 2022, while the Russell is up just 39%.
The largest U.S. companies have been using AI tools internally in recent years to improve their productivity and supply chains, and in some cases reduce headcounts. A World Economic Forum survey released in early 2025 found that about 40% of companies worldwide expect to reduce their workforce to positions where AI can automate tasks over the next five years.
The number of layoffs has increased this year. Several well-known companies including Goal, Amazon, Meta, Starbucks, oracle, Microsoft And UPShave announced significant cuts to their overall workforce. For Target and Amazon, the cuts are historic. Companies have mostly cited efforts to streamline their operations and growth strategy as reasons for the cuts, but many are nodding to AI as a reason human workers may be cut now or in the future.
For one thing, Amazon has been a leader in deploying robots across its facilities, which the e-commerce giant says improves costs and delivery times. The New York Times reported Tuesday that Amazon executives believe the company is on track to replace more than half a million jobs with robots, which they say will save about 30 cents on every item Amazon selects, packs and delivers to customers. Morgan Stanley said Amazon's robotics efforts could save the company between $2 billion and $4 billion by 2027.
Klarna, which is among the companies most transparent about how AI impacts headcount, said it has shrunk its workforce by about 40%, partly due to AI investments. CrowdStrike announced cuts to 5% of the company's global workforce in May, citing the efficiency of AI and saying the technology was “flattening our hiring curve.” IBM's CEO has predicted that 30% of non-customer-facing jobs will be eliminated by 2028 and told the Wall Street Journal earlier this year that AI chatbots had replaced 200 HR workers, freeing up investment to hire more people in sales and programming.
Palo Alto Networks, Walmart And McDonald's There are other companies in particular that have used AI in ways that analysts expect will improve their margins, CNBC previously reported.
An Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Insights survey of 5,000 small businesses in the US, Canada, UK and Australia in September found that 68% of companies have integrated AI into their daily operations, with about two-thirds reporting an increase in productivity.
“The numbers don’t lie,” Wells Fargo’s Kwon said in his report.