Black worker unemployment is rising again, two years after hitting record lows. It's a worrying indicator: Unemployment among traditionally marginalized groups often rises during economic downturns and takes longer to fall again.
This time, the Trump administration's attacks on diversity programs and cuts to the federal workforce could make it even harder for Black workers to recover as conditions improve.
The unemployment rate for African Americans has risen from 6 to 7.5 percent over the past four months, while the rate for whites has fallen slightly to 3.7 percent. In addition to a slowing economy, the White House's actions have disproportionately hurt Black workers, economists said.
“I think the speed at which things have changed in such a dramatic way is extraordinary,” said Valerie Wilson, who directs the race, ethnicity and economics program at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “There has been such rapid political change, rather than anything cyclical or structural about the economy.”
At least since the 1970s, when the federal government began tracking unemployment by race, the rate for blacks has been about twice as high as for whites. Because of poorer educational opportunities, the legacy of mass incarceration and generational discrimination, Black people face greater challenges in the job market.
A strong economy during President Trump's first term created more jobs for Black workers, but many of them were lost when the Covid-19 pandemic hit in-person employment particularly hard. However, generous public subsidies softened the blow and hiring recovered quickly.
“I had hoped that the commitment to investing in America so that a broader group of Americans would actually receive benefits in the form of low unemployment and higher wages would continue,” said Dedrick Asante-Muhammad, president of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a think tank that focuses on issues affecting black Americans. He said he was particularly disappointed with major companies that said they would support Black workers in response to racial justice protests in 2020, only to back down.
According to Ms. Wilson's analysis of federal data, the job losses are concentrated among black women working in professional services such as human resources. A hiring freeze and mass layoffs in the federal workforce, which continued during the government shutdown and now exceed 200,000, also disproportionately affected Black workers.
The hiring freeze is also a barrier for young workers trying to get their foot in the door.
“The federal government is one of the places where people can get entry-level jobs,” said Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which researches the social safety net. “It’s an entire industry that’s closed to new hires.”
State and local governments have picked up some of the federal government's negligence. But competition for these jobs has become fiercer as more laid-off public sector workers look for jobs.
Sherri Marshall, 26, who graduated from the University of California at Davis with a psychology degree several years ago, worked for a car rental company and a homeless shelter in Los Angeles. But they both let her go and she is still looking for a job where she can use her training.
“It's always jobs with a lot of work and low pay, nothing sustainable,” said Ms. Marshall, who works at a farmers market on weekends and builds a freelance social media marketing portfolio in between filling out job applications. “It is more difficult for me to get more technical and higher skilled jobs despite my qualifications.”
Ms. Marshall presented her qualifications in a 30-second pitch last week during a job fair with city agencies at the Los Angeles Black Worker Center, where she also volunteers. The nonprofit has pushed local governments to hire more black workers because unionized public sector jobs have historically provided a gateway to stable employment.
The federal backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion practices could also make it harder for Black workers to get hired in the private sector. Some of the most compelling evidence of the effectiveness of these practices, such as ensuring that non-white candidates are interviewed or outreach to black and Hispanic students, comes from federal contractors. In one of its first actions, the Trump administration ordered this group to stop pursuing racial justice.
Janel Belovette Jenkins, co-executive director of the Los Angeles Black Worker Center, is trying to build relationships with employers who say they are being inundated with applicants.
“A lot of people get their jobs through networking,” said Mx. Jenkins said. “Part of our job is to develop the programs that create the network that connects highly skilled, skilled workers with employers who may not have seen them initially.”
Lower interest rates could provide relief. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Democrat of Massachusetts, wrote to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell in early September, urging the central bank to take stronger action to support full employment of black workers. Fed officials cut interest rates for the first time this year later in the month and suggested further cuts were likely.
But Trump administration actions that go beyond workforce cuts and anti-DEI measures could create additional hurdles for Black workers. For example, the Labor Department's proposed rollback of minimum wage and overtime protections for domestic workers would affect their income. Home care aides for the elderly are predominantly black and Hispanic women.
And despite Mr. Trump's campaign claim that immigrants are taking jobs away from Black people, rising unemployment among Black workers suggests that mass deportations of migrants have not stopped the trend.
Brittany Alston, director of the Philly Black Worker Project, said deporting immigrants has hurt the local economy in ways that have also hurt Black workers.
“We know that a deep injury to one is an injury to all,” Ms. Alston said.