Spring is traditionally the time when Canada’s real estate market is in full swing. But this year it’s quiet, despite four consecutive price cuts nationally.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales were essentially flat in March and offers remain subdued. At the same time, new data from real estate firm Royal LePage shows that conditions vary widely across regions, with certain markets still seeing price increases while others remain under pressure.
With high prices still deterring some buyers, many, including investors, want to know where they can get the best value for their money.
Financial Post spoke to real estate agents and market watchers across the market to find out where the opportunities and risks lie in this spring market.
Where you get the best bang for your buck
“The best value, the best price per square foot, today is to buy a condo for resale,” said real estate agent Alexander Yolevski, a member of brokerage firm Re/Max Condos Plus Corp. who works primarily in Midtown Toronto. “Whether it’s a property for yourself or, better yet, a large functional unit for your family, the price per square foot has dropped dramatically for resale condos in the Greater Toronto Area.”
According to real estate analytics firm Urbanation, resale condo prices fell about 25 percent to $859 per square foot in the first quarter from their peak in 2022. In comparison, asking prices for new condos fell more modestly to $1,189 per square foot, widening the gap between new and resold units by nearly 40 percent.
Rising inventory and weaker demand have also tipped the scales in favor of buyers in the Vancouver condo market.
“There are some incredible opportunities right now as buyers can secure homes at significant year-over-year discounts,” said Adil Dinani, a Vancouver-based real estate agent and founder of Dinani Group, a broker member of Royal LePage West Real Estate Services & Affiliates.
Dinani says this shift has created a rare window in which buyers can access new condos at more competitive prices.
“New construction has some of the biggest buying opportunities right now, and developers are coming to the table with additional incentives.”
According to CREA, benchmark home prices in the region fell 6.8 percent to $1,096,300 in March.
Where have prices fallen the most?
Price declines were most noticeable in parts of Ontario, with the largest declines in the Oakville-Milton area.
Benchmark home prices fell 11.1 percent in Oakville-Milton, among the largest year-over-year declines in the country, according to the latest data from CREA.
“Many buyers moved to Oakville-Milton during the pandemic when interest rates were low, and now those same homeowners are facing higher mortgage renewals and are more motivated to sell,” said Michael Phinney, CEO and president of Phinney Real Estate, part of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, adding that these transactions set new, lower benchmark prices for the area.
However, this applies to properties in Oakville-Milton outside of the luxury market, he said. “The luxury market is still holding relatively steady,” Phinney said, adding that luxury sellers are more likely to take the property off the market and wait if they are unable to get the number they want.
Kitchener-Waterloo and Barrie also top the list for benchmark year-over-year price declines, down 8.6 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.
Waterloo Region’s weakness is concentrated in certain market segments, said Ken Cameron, broker and owner at Re/Max Solid Gold Realty (II) Ltd.
“Compared to demand, there is quite an oversupply of one-bedroom-plus-den condos in the $400,000 to $500,000 range,” Cameron said.
This imbalance contributes to weaker pricing, in addition to a change in buyer behavior. “About two-thirds of the homes sold last week sold below asking price,” he said, adding that buyers were increasingly willing to walk away rather than overpay.
Peggy Hill, of the Peggy Hill Team at Re/Max Hallmark Realty in Barrie, said prices in the area “went up the most, so we had to go down even further.” She added that today’s buyers – many of them newbies – are working with tight budgets, forcing sellers to adjust their expectations.
For first-time homebuyers, “anything over $600,000 becomes a problem,” she said.
Price declines are most visible at higher prices when properties take longer to sell.
“If you’re shopping in Barrie this spring, I would look for an $850,000 deal because these guys have been on the market the longest,” Hill said
What is the hottest market right now?
Quebec is defying the general downturn in the real estate sector, with Quebec City being Canada’s best-performing city, leading the way in price growth and activity.
Quebec City real estate prices rose 10.7 percent year-over-year to a record $445,700 in the first quarter, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of increasing growth, according to data from Royal LePage. Saskatchewan and parts of Atlantic Canada are also experiencing significant growth.
“Compared to Toronto and Vancouver, we’re still very affordable, so demand continues,” said Carlo Calabrese, a broker with Re/Max Harmonie Inc. in Montreal.
“Single-family homes still face the most competition, while condos have more inventory and fewer bids,” he said.
In Montreal, benchmark prices continue to rise, with monthly statistics from CREA reporting a five per cent year-on-year increase to $589,300 in March.
“Any location on the island of Montreal is a good investment right now, with more inventory giving shoppers more choice than before,” said Dominic St-Pierre, senior vice president of business development at Royal LePage Canada.
“Areas like Hochelaga are on the rise because they remain among the most affordable, but prices are rising faster than elsewhere,” he said.
Where else do investors buy?
“There’s a lot of demand for multifamily housing right now. They can’t build them fast enough,” said John Carter, broker and owner of Re/Max River City in Edmonton.
Investor activity continues in Alberta’s capital, where affordability has caught the attention of income-focused buyers.
“Investors are targeting six-, eight- and 10-unit properties that generate good cash flow,” Carter said.
But even in an investor market, affordability gaps are emerging where these buyers ultimately end up, especially as demand in Calgary drives up prices.
“What we hear a lot is that people thought about Calgary, but the price was too low, and now they’re looking at Edmonton,” he said, adding that the city is increasingly becoming a second choice because of its affordability.
The investor market is still lively in Quebec too.
“Investors are moving away from condominiums and focusing more on duplexes and triplexes,” said St-Pierre.
In contrast, investors in Ontario and Kitchener-Waterloo have largely retreated. “We’re not seeing as many investors anymore. … It’s harder to reconcile the numbers with lower rents and higher interest rates,” Cameron said.
Which markets have the largest gap between supply and demand?
Offers are piling up as buyers pull back in two of Canada’s major hubs, Toronto and Vancouver, particularly in the condo segment. However, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are bucking this trend.
According to Urbanation, new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area reached their lowest level in 35 years in the first quarter of 2026 with just 246 units sold, which is 94 per cent below the 10-year average. Over the same period, unsold inventory has continued to accumulate: more than 4,200 newly completed units are unsold and 9,000 more are in the pipeline.
However, according to CREA, Saskatchewan is one of the most stressed markets in the country, with inventory levels less than three months old and more than 50 per cent below historical levels. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the ratio of sales to new listings falls within the sellers’ market area.
“We’re in a very tight market,” said Bill Stirling, chief executive of the Newfoundland and Labrador Association of Realtors, adding that conditions are even better in the St. John’s area, where a significant proportion of homes are selling at or above asking price.
In Saskatchewan, Tyler Hudy, vice-president of public affairs and communications for the province’s association of real estate agents, said: “Price increases are occurring in all markets across the province, including several municipalities that are reaching record highs.”
• Email: shcampbell@postmedia.com
Spring is traditionally the busiest time for real estate, and this year the stakes couldn’t be higher. Follow our Spring Real Estate Survival Guide series as we address some of the most pressing questions facing buyers and sellers, as well as expert advice on how to navigate the realities of a slower market.
Read more in our Spring Real Estate Survival Guide
- Why pinpointing the bottom of the Canadian real estate market might be harder than you think
- Buying in a Bear Market: These Dealing Tips Could Save Home Hunters Big Money This Spring (For Subscribers)
- The big correction: Not even Wayne Gretzky’s hometown escaped the “suburbs” crash
- Why first-time home buyers are still cautious this spring
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