Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during the 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting on October 16, 2025 in Washington.
Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday he was concerned about the U.S. economy, citing high asset prices and a competitive banking environment that reminded him of the crisis years before 2008.
Even as economists tout the Trump administration’s tax and deregulation policies as a boost to economic growth this year, Dimon said during an annual investor update that he himself tends to think about what could go wrong when expectations are high.
“I think people are a little bit confident that this is reality, these high asset prices and high volumes, and that we’re not going to have any problems,” said Dimon, dressed in black and wearing a brace on one of his hands.
Inevitably, Dimon said, the economic cycle will turn, leading to a wave of loan defaults that will have a widespread impact on lenders, and often on industries that few people expected, he said.
“One day there will be a cycle… I don’t know what confluence of events will trigger that cycle. I’m very afraid of it,” Dimon said. “The fact that asset prices are high doesn’t reassure me. In fact, I think it increases risk.”
While fears about how artificial intelligence models from Anthropic and OpenAI could revolutionize a variety of industries – particularly software companies – have roiled markets in recent weeks, the broader S&P 500 is not far from its all-time record levels.
At the same time, concerns about loans to software companies related to AI concerns have plagued private lenders after Blue Owl rattled markets last week when it announced it would have to sell assets to satisfy investors clamoring to exit one of its funds.
The episode that dragged down shares of major alternative asset managers, including Apollo, KKR And Blackstoneled some market watchers to question whether the beginning of a broader downturn in lending had begun.
Doing “stupid things.”
“There is always a surprise in a credit cycle,” Dimon said. “The surprise was often which industry” was hardest hit, he said. “In 2008 and 2009, utility and phone companies were not expected, and this time it could be because of AI software.”
Dimon also said he supported his deputies’ comments on private loans from earlier at the investor event.
Troy Rohrbaugh, co-head of the company’s commercial and investment bank, said he didn’t believe the problems were limited to private lenders but that they were “broader based.”
“At this point it feels a little isolated to a few situations, but that could easily change and we are prepared for that,” Rohrbaugh said.
In response to a question from veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo, Dimon said the current environment feels similar to the three years before the 2008 financial crisis in that “everyone is making a lot of money, people are using leverage, the sky was the limit.”
The JPMorgan chief said some financial firms were “doing some stupid things” involving chasing interest income earned through lending and investing activities, but did not name the companies doing so.
“You feel stupid when everyone is minting money and everyone is great… it feels really good,” Dimon said.
“And then when I think about all the factors,” Dimon added, “I take a deep breath and say, ‘Pay attention.’
Dimon also addressed the perennial question of CEO succession at JPMorgan, which he built into the world’s largest bank by market capitalization over his two-decade tenure.
While he has often given a specific time frame for how many years he has left as CEO, he avoided doing so on Monday.
“I was told to be specific about that,” Dimon said to scattered laughter from analysts in attendance. “I’ll be here as CEO for a few years and maybe as chairman for a few years after that.”