Retirement 2026 by the Numbers

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Retirement 2026 by the Numbers

America is aging rapidly.

By 2030, one in five Americans will be 65 or older, and by 2034, older adults will outnumber children for the first time, according to the Census Bureau. This year the oldest baby boomers will turn 80.

This demographic shift is reshaping much of the U.S. economy, from labor force participation to retirement savings, Social Security and Medicare spending, health care spending, housing and financial services. Retirement is one of the largest – and fastest growing – forces in the economy.

But aging in America is uneven. Wealth inequality, inadequate retirement savings, and rising health and care costs mean that some households enjoy remarkable financial security in retirement, while others struggle to even afford it. And poverty rates are rising among older Americans — the only age group that has seen an increase in recent years.

Here are seven numbers that provide insights into some of the key trends shaping retirement as we head into 2026.

The trend is more pronounced among women – their retirement age has risen from about 55 in the 1960s to 62.6 in 2024 – although the rapid growth of the female workforce in the second half of the last century makes it more difficult to measure.

The average age at which people apply for Social Security has also risen by about two years since the mid-1990s — a trend that continued during the pandemic, which many forecasters predicted would prompt older workers to seek benefits early. “Many people were finally able to work from home, and for certain types of workers, it even allowed them to delay retirement,” said Anqi Chen, deputy director of savings and household finance at the center.

However, a significant group of Social Security recipients — 40 percent — continue to work even after claiming benefits, typically for several years. Most of them are low-income earners who apply early and then work part-time; The rest are high earners who often work full time after they have almost reached full retirement age.

“People come into and out of retirement,” Ms. Chen said. “It could be their health, their economic situation or their family situation, but some people have difficulty actually being able to afford retirement.”

Strong markets have played a large role in this jump, but increasing participation and contributions to 401(k) plans have also driven growth.

Most of the recent wealth growth has come in 401(k)s and IRAs, and IRAs have held more assets than corporate plans for five straight years, a shift driven largely by reallocations as baby boomers retire, said Peter Brady, senior economic adviser at the Investment Company Institute.

“There are a lot of promotions and a lot of competition here now as people retire,” said Dr. Brady, pointing to employers’ efforts to entice retirees to stay in their plans by offering new payout options, as well as financial services companies trying to reap rollover dollars.

The average savings rate of participants in Vanguard-administered plans peaked at 7.7 percent of pay in 2024, boosted by auto-enrollment and escalation of contribution rates.

These changes have made the 401(k) system more resilient, and retirement savers are staying on track despite the turmoil caused by the pandemic, market fluctuations and inflation over the past five years, notes David Stinnett, head of Vanguard’s Strategic Retirement Consulting group.

“Because of these standard features, people just keep going,” he said.

Combined participant and employer contribution rates have risen steadily over time to an average of 12 percent of wages, up from 10.8 percent in 2015. And there is strong adoption of target-date funds that automatically shift portfolios to an age-appropriate asset allocation. At Vanguard, 84 percent of participants used target funds in 2024, up from 69 percent in 2015 — and 59 percent were invested exclusively in those funds, Vanguard reports.

Here’s the problem: Only half of private sector workers are covered by a company pension plan at any given time, largely because small employers are less likely to offer plans.

The funding gap helps explain why average retirement savings for workers ages 55 to 64 were just $185,000 in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve, and savings for low-income workers have declined in recent years. There are also persistent differences in savings by race and ethnicity: Black households, on average, hold only 14 percent as much as white households and Hispanic households only hold 20 percent as much as white households.

For savers ages 60 to 63, there is a “super catch-up” option with a limit of $11,250. Current law requires employees making more than $150,000 to make catch-up contributions through a Roth contribution option within a 401(k).

The IRA contribution limit is $7,500, with an additional catch-up amount of $1,100 for older savers.

About half of those eligible for subsidies are between the ages of 50 and 64 — too young for Medicare.

According to KFF, a 64-year-old with an income just above the subsidy limit ($62,700) would pay an average of $16,500 per year for a benchmark silver plan, up from $5,328.

“It is the pre-Medicare population that will struggle hardest with higher premiums if expanded subsidies are not expanded,” said Tricia Neuman, senior vice president of KFF. The subsidies expired on December 31st; A vote on a proposed three-year extension of the tax credits is expected in the House this month, but the fate of efforts to extend them is uncertain.

Medicare costs are also rising sharply. The standard Part B premium this year is $202.90 per month — up nearly 10 percent and 66 percent more than a decade ago. Medicare trustees predict another 7.75 percent increase in 2027 to $218.60 and nearly $350 by 2034.

The increases hit lower-income beneficiaries hardest. One in four Medicare beneficiaries had an income of less than $24,600 in 2024, and half lived on less than $43,200, according to KFF.

“It accounts for a large portion of income and premiums are rising faster than earnings,” said Dr. Neuman.

Average assisted living per month $5,900 and a full-time home care worker $6,500 – still far beyond what most families planned.

Nearly 85 percent of adults over 65 say they expect to live in their current home for the rest of their lives, according to a University of Michigan study, although preparations for doing so vary widely.

“No one is saying, ‘I can’t wait to go to an assisted living facility,'” said Samir Shah, CEO of CareScout, “but the ongoing pressures of the pandemic, rising costs of care and longer life expectancy are driving a very rapid turn away from people seeking assisted living facilities.”

“We are seeing the cost of living rising for everyone, particularly health care costs,” said Jane Tavares, a gerontologist at the LeadingAge LTSS Center at the University of Massachusetts, Boston. “This affects older adults more because they tend to be sicker and live on limited income.”

An index compiled by the Center finds that half of those over 65 cannot afford to support themselves. And research from the center and the National Council on Aging found that 80 percent of older households lack the financial resources to weather major financial shocks such as widowhood, serious illness or the need for long-term care. The financial problems also extend to middle-income households. For example, households with an average total income of $46,200 in 2022 had only $15,800 in non-housing financial assets that could be used in the event of a financial shock.

Cuts to food aid and Medicaid eligibility under budget legislation signed by President Trump last year would worsen poverty prospects for older Americans, Dr. Tavares. “People need to be clear that there is no going back on these cuts.”