While headlines about Toronto's real estate industry have (often rightly) been dominated by doom and gloom, data from UrbanToronto suggests some hope for the industry's future.
No doubt about iI: developers have proposed fewer projects and fewer units in 2025
UTPro's year-end development summary for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area shows a significant decline in the volume of new proposals in 2025 compared to 2024. Developers proposed 318 new projects in 2025, down from 395 the year before, and the total number of proposed homes fell from 209,490 to 171,578. The pipeline also shifted toward previous proposals: 309 of the 2025 proposals were in the construction phase, compared to 354 in 2024, while only eight were under construction in 2025, compared to 34 in 2024, and only one reached completion, compared to six the year before.
Even though more buildings were proposed overall in 2025, increasing from 992 to 1,211, the headline remains that fewer projects were submitted and fewer units were brought forward, while totals for gross floor area, commercial space, lot area and parking were lower than in 2024.
Comparison of development applications submitted in 2025 to 2024 in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Data from UTPro.
New construction continues to increase, but for how long?
The quarterly construction starts chart for the greater Golden Horseshoe area shows that the new construction trend continued upward into 2025, building on momentum that began in 2023 and accelerated through 2024. Each quarter of 2024 was well above year-ago levels, and 2025 started even stronger, with the highest quarterly total coming in the first quarter before tapering off slightly over the course of the year. The important point is that activity has not returned to 2023 levels; Instead, it remained in higher territory heading into 2024, suggesting the region's construction pipeline remained active even as broader market conditions continued to put pressure on feasibility and financing.
New construction begins each quarter for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Data from UTPro.
Looking year-over-year supports the same conclusion, as 2025 is significantly higher than 2024 in terms of total construction starts, rather than simply shifting activity between quarters. However, the late-year cooling visible in 2025 raises the obvious question of durability. When quarterly numbers peak early and then trend downward in the fourth quarter, it can signal everything from timing effects to a more structural downturn starting to take hold. In other words, the data still supports the headline that construction activity has continued to increase, but the way the year has played out leaves the next question unanswered: Is this the new normal or the final push before the pipeline tightens again?
Construction of new housing units in the City of Toronto, 2025 vs. 2024. Data from UTPro.
Developers loved leasing in 2025
UTPro's rental tracking throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe makes one thing unmistakable: 2025 was a breakout year for dedicated rentals in the supply pipeline. The number of proposed rental units nearly doubled year-on-year, increasing from about 18,000 in 2024 to about 35,000 in 2025 in Durham, Halton, Hamilton, Niagara, Peel, Simcoe, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington and York. Such an increase is neither a rounding error nor a minor recovery; This is a clear signal that developers, investors and property owners increasingly viewed rental as the most viable path forward in a market where the viability of other forms of housing was under continued pressure.
Comparing New Rental Unit Applications and New Rental Unit Construction in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, 2025 vs. 2024. Data from UTPro.
What strengthens the story is that the construction side also saw an uptick, not just the “ideas” side. The number of rental units starting construction increased from about 11,000 in 2024 to over 17,000 in 2025, showing that a significant portion of the rental momentum resulted in projects actually moving forward on site. The gap between proposals and launches is still important, and it is always easier to propose units than to build them, but 2025 brought growth on both fronts. In practice, the data suggests that rent is becoming the central driver of new supply across the GGH – at least for now – and the key question for 2026 will be whether the increase will continue or whether feasibility constraints will begin to limit the proportion of this pipeline that can realistically be converted to construction.
Toronto City Council loved developers in 2025
The number of units crossing the limit in 2025 is higher than in 2024, at least in terms of the total number of apartments approved. The number of units approved by the council increased from 136,491 in 2024 to 142,049 in 2025, although the number of approved applications fell sharply from 323 to 219. Put simply, fewer applications accounted for more homes approved, which is exactly what happens when approvals are more efficient and the city approves larger proposals rather than wading through a larger number of smaller proposals.
City Council and OLT approvals and settlements for applications to the City of Toronto, 2024 vs. 2025. Data from UTPro.
The Ontario Land Tribunal's picture, on the other hand, turned in the opposite direction when it came to “approvals,” but focused more on the ratification of settlements. The number of units approved by the OLT fell from 80,097 in 2024 to 6,680 in 2025, while the number of appeals fell sharply from 137 to 16, while the number of units resolved through OLT settlements increased from 32,099 to 44,972, although the number of settlements fell slightly from 67 to 59. Another clue is the timing: the average application age fell to 3.51 years to 4.67 years in 2024, suggesting that the overall approval and resolution cycle was faster and there were fewer backlogs. Taken together, the data reads like a year in which council approvals bore the greater burden and the OLT acted less as an “approval engine” and more as a mechanism for negotiated outcomes.
Conclusion: Green Shoots or Dead Cat Bounce?
Toronto's real estate market has undoubtedly suffered several major setbacks in recent years. From the 2022 rate hikes hurting supply by increasing construction costs while hurting investors and buyers, to the recent immigration and student visa cuts hurting demand by reducing the number of new buyers and renters. And other analyzes suggesting that the onslaught of new construction could lead to a lack of completions in the near future could well prove to be true — assuming nothing changes.
But things are constantly changing in real estate. While macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, the microeconomics may be more directly affected by policy changes.
A major policy (and attitudinal) shift has taken place in Toronto City Council, where there is clearly a new impetus to approve new projects more quickly than ever before. Combined with other changes to allow smaller developments of up to six storeys in the busiest areas of the city, this can dramatically reduce the cost and uncertainty of housing construction.
If this trend continues and additional support comes from the provincial and federal governments, the market can overcome its current hurdles sooner rather than later. This requires continued efforts from the real estate industry to drive these positive changes. Fortunately, governments at all levels appear willing to listen.
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UTPro is the leading data source for developers, planners and suppliers seeking leads for active real estate developments in the greater Golden Horseshoe area. Our data is updated in real time as changes are made to the applications, construction status and the companies working to build these projects.