This holiday shopping season, Home Depot is looking to regain some momentum after a disappointing year. The hardware store's Black Friday promotions, which end Wednesday, are aimed at boosting customer traffic after a weak third quarter in which rival Lowe's performed better in same-store sales. Both companies were cautious with their forecast for the future. “I admit that I'm at Home Depot for my charitable trust, and I actually wish I was at Lowe's,” Jim Cramer said on CNBC last week, shortly after Lowe's shares exploded following earnings. However, Jim has said that Home Depot is the best bet for lower interest rates in the trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club. Home Depot has enough gift sets and holiday decorations “to keep the lights on,” says Mizuho analyst David Bellinger. “It's not about success or failure. But it definitely helps to have these other categories.” While the spring planting season, which coincides with the busiest time for home sales, is Home Depot's most important time, Black Friday and holiday shopping are still important, according to Bellinger. Certainly, neither Home Depot nor Lowe's stocks will rock the world while 2025 is a strong year for the S&P 500. Home Depot has fallen more than 8% since the beginning of the year. Lowe's is down over 1% in 2025. The charts of both stocks followed a similar pattern. But last month, Home Depot's decline was larger than Lowe's. HD LOW YTD Mountain Home Depot and Lowe's YTD As shoppers prepare for post-Thanksgiving shopping, Home Depot is poised to pocket those dollars. The company doesn't provide Black Friday sales data, but during its latest earnings call, William Bastek, executive vice president of merchandising at Home Depot, said the company was “looking forward to the excitement” of the annual shopping holiday, citing appliance deals on popular brands such as LG, Samsung, Bosch, Whirlpool, GE and Frigidaire. Bastek also highlighted the company's gift center events. Returning to February's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings release, Bastek said holiday events generated strong interest and events at home appliances and gift centers saw record sales. Home Depot reported revenue of $39.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts expect revenue to fall 4% to $38.09 billion in the current fourth quarter of 2025, according to FactSet. An important part of the company's strategy is to attract professional contractors. The company recently spent more than $22 billion to acquire SRS Distribution and GMS. In early September, Home Depot completed its acquisition of GMS and merged it into SRS. So far the big bets are paying off. Management said SRS, which targets roofing professionals and has a lucrative trade credit scheme, “continues to perform extremely well”. However, the roofing market is under pressure, resulting in flat comparables for SRS in the third quarter. Housing construction is also stagnating. But professional customers are a more stable customer base for Home Depot, as opposed to do-it-yourself customers who rely on residential sales. Home Depot is about 55% professionals and 45% DIYers. Lowe's, known for more do-it-yourself products, also competes in the professional space, completing its acquisition of Foundation Building Materials last month. FBM sells building and construction materials. Bellinger admits that while investors seem to be losing some patience with both stocks, they are still valuable. “I feel like we’re closer to rock bottom [for Home Depot and Lowe’s]said Bellinger, who maintained a Buy rating on both stocks. For Home Depot in particular, he lowered the price target from $450 to $400. Home Depot erased nearly all of the gains from a rally that began in mid-June as expectations grew for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. So far, that hasn't happened on a significant scale. The Fed's rate cuts last year failed to significantly curb the rise in bond yields and mortgage rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market opportunity for another rate cut lies at next month's central bank meeting “Once mortgage rates finally come down, we took advantage of the drop in stock prices last week,” Jim said. “However, the stock is too low considering there will be interest rate cuts.” Jim makes a deal. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock on CNBC television before executing the trade. FIDUCTIVE DUTIES ARE OR CREATE BY RECEIVING YOUR INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB.



