However, some indicators can help experts describe the overall risk of wildfires. And Flannigan sees cause for concern this season.
Parts of Canada endured the winter in unusually dry or arid conditions, including historic wildfires in southern Interior British Columbia, northern Manitoba and the eastern Northwest Territories.
Long-term forecasts suggest much of Canada could be hotter than normal in the coming months. And El Niño, the warming phase of a recurring climate pattern linked to water changes in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to take hold this summer.
Still, much of Canada is heading into wildfire season in better shape than in some of the worst recent years. A stormy winter has left a fairly deep blanket of snow across much of the country, particularly in areas farther north, said Richard Carr, wildfire research analyst with Natural Resources Canada in Edmonton.
“We don’t really see a lot of signs of unusual activity until April,” Carr said.
There are some exceptions, such as: B. Southern BC to southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Some conditions conducive to wildfires have already developed in these areas, Carr said.
Carr is also eyeing drought-stricken New Brunswick and areas around Hudson Bay and the eastern Northwest Territories, which saw less than normal snowfall.
“It looks like we’re looking at fairly warm conditions throughout the summer, and the rest of the country could get quite active sometime in June or July,” he said, although he downplayed El Niño’s influence on the wildfire season.
Canada is heading into uncharted territory this season, coming off three years of heavy fires in a row. Last season was the second worst, after 2023, when wildfires devastated about 150,000 square kilometers of land.
Accelerating climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is causing longer and more intense wildfire seasons, scientists say. A warmer atmosphere can draw more moisture from the branches and pine needles, turning the forest floor into a tinderbox waiting for a spark. It also increases the likelihood and severity of heat waves and droughts that trigger fires.
Canada’s managed forests have begun releasing more carbon in recent years, which they absorb, reinforcing a climate feedback loop. The most striking example is that the wildfires of 2023 released more planet-warming emissions than almost any other country on Earth except China, India and the United States, a NASA study found.
Extreme behavior during wildfires is also becoming more common, Flannigan said. Wildfires like the Jasper 2024 complex can burn so fiercely that they generate their own thunderstorms, triggering lightning strikes and sparking new localized fires. The 2023 season saw the most fire-caused thunderstorms in a season, with more than 140 in Canada alone, Flannigan said. The previous world record was 100 and was set two years earlier.
Fires take their toll in many ways. Tens of thousands of people across Canada have fled wildfires in recent seasons, and studies show high levels of post-traumatic stress among evacuees.
Even far from a fire, smoke poses a serious health risk. A recent Health Canada investigation estimates that smoke exposure during wildfires in 2023 could contribute to approximately 400 acute and 5,400 chronic premature deaths. The study estimated that this could lead to billions of dollars in medical costs, reduced productivity and pain and suffering.
As the country emerges from winter, it’s easy for people to forget that they need to be aware of the risk of wildfires when they venture out into the landscape, said Derrick Forsythe, wildfire information officer for Alberta Wildfire. He said there have already been reports of some abandoned campfires in the southern parts of the province, but fortunately none that have resulted in major fires.
“This is a volatile time of year for us because there is so much potential fuel out there,” Forsythe said, referring to the dead vegetation that is exposed as the snow melts.
“Make sure everything is outside and cool to the touch. You know, just do that part to keep the risk of new wildfires down in the spring.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 10, 2026.
Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press