Even at a time of inflation, tariffs and economic uncertainty, Americans opened their wallets on Black Friday, chasing deep discounts and stretching their budgets wherever they could.
Data released Saturday showed that shoppers took advantage of Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales, spending significantly more than last year online and slightly more in stores, although they became pickier about the items they put in carts.
Shoppers made an estimated $11.8 billion in online purchases Friday, up 9.1 percent from a year ago, and spent $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving, according to data from Adobe Analytics, a data collection and analytics platform.
Another metric from Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures retail sales using cash, credit cards and digital payments, found that Black Friday online sales rose 10.4 percent and in-store sales rose 1.7 percent compared to last year. Apparel and jewelry were among the highest spending categories as retailers offered deep discounts.
“Despite doubts about its relevance due to the extended, month-long sales season, Black Friday remains the most important shopping day of the holiday season,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at RR Donnelley, a communications firm.
Economists view this year's holiday sales as an indicator of how the economy is faring amid economic challenges: the longest government shutdown, changes to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits and a weakening job market. Despite strong Black Friday sales this year, analysts say it may not reflect retailers' overall performance this holiday season.
The figures published on Saturday offer a first insight into the development of the Christmas business. The National Retail Federation will update its numbers on Tuesday.
The holiday season, which spans November and December, is here and many households are feeling under pressure. Consumer confidence has faltered as prices remain high and incomes show signs of flattening while some companies struggle with the added burden of tariffs. The latest federal data showed retail sales rose a modest 0.2 percent from August to September, falling short of expectations, although sales were still up 4.2 percent from a year ago.
And while retailers' sales improved, shoppers were picky about their Black Friday purchases. As of Friday, its customers' top product categories by volume included vitamins, T-shirts and skin care items, according to real-time data from Shopify, a provider of software for retail businesses.
Those who benefited the most were discount retailers, which saw “good traffic” and shoppers “leaving with one or two big bags,” said Katherine Black, a partner in the consumer practice at global consultancy Kearney. Chains like TJX Companies, Burlington Stores and Ross Stores were poised for a robust season as bargain shoppers shy away from high-priced goods, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm.
“Value continues to be at the heart of the holiday season,” said Brian McCarthy, principal and retail strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting. “Black Friday-Cyber Monday promotions are an easy way for shoppers to secure these deals.”
The National Retail Federation said earlier this month that it expects holiday sales to rise 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent compared to last year, forecasting sales of up to $1.02 trillion. Deloitte also predicted holiday retail sales would top $1 trillion. Retailers like Best Buy and Williams-Sonoma that sell necessities or luxury items have seen sales rise in recent quarters, suggesting some consumers will still splurge on expensive gifts. But chains that focus on essentials and lower-priced goods continue to perform better.
Take Walmart. Sales for the quarter ending in October rose 6 percent from a year ago, prompting the company to raise its sales forecast. However, Target moved in the opposite direction: Sales fell 1.5 percent, falling short of expectations as shoppers pulled back on some discretionary items.
Walmart, which is offering temporary discounts on about 7,400 items, more than half of them on grocery shelves, is seeing increasing traffic from higher-income families, its Chief Executive Doug McMillon said in a call with analysts earlier this month. And wealthier households, supported by the recovery in financial markets, are expected to continue spending briskly, helping to offset a slowdown among lower-income shoppers. According to Moody's Analytics, the top 10 percent of households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending in the United States.
Analysts also say artificial intelligence-assisted shopping has played a big role. Retailers like Target, Shopify, and Walmart partnered with OpenAI ahead of the holidays to make it easier for consumers to search for deals or generate product suggestions. Salesforce reported that traffic from third-party AI agents increased more than 300 percent during Black Friday compared to last year, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Vivek Pandya, director of digital insights at Adobe, said the use of generative AI helped total spending for Thanksgiving be “higher than expected.”
Over the last decade, Black Friday has evolved from a single hectic day of in-store chaos to a week-long barrage of digital promotions. Slightly more shoppers returned to brick-and-mortar stores than last year, lured in part by freebies from chains like Target and Lowe's. Videos shared on social platforms showed long lines and a sense of nostalgia among customers eager to relive the old-school Black Friday ritual.
“Retailers appear to have had a successful start to the season, but Christmas is still 28 days away and the season is rarely won on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” said Michael Brown, partner and head of Americas retail in the consumer practice at Kearney. “Retailers must continue to entice customers to continue shopping without cutting into lower margins due to tariffs.”