Drought statistics are always a reliable source when it comes to wildfire risk.
Across the country, interior British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and Labrador are regions of particular concern. But BC is the only one of the three that has faced significant heat this season.
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Canada Drought Monitor April 30, 2026/Agriculture and Food Canada
(Agriculture and Food Canada)
Looking at the area burned in each province as of mid-May, most provinces are within one to five percent of their normal burned area compared to the 10-year average.
New Brunswick skews the numbers in eastern Canada, where about 360 hectares were burned, compared to the normal total of 129 hectares. Nationally, Canada is at about 2.4 percent of normal.
Status of Canada’s 2026 wildfires as of May 16
In the United States, many from Florida and Georgia to Colorado and Nebraska are dealing with extreme and even exceptional drought (occurs about every 50 years).
Eight of the western states are entering the summer season with historically low snowpacks, reflecting drought status and will become increasingly a concern as the summer progresses.
US Drought Monitor as of May 12, 2026
The three largest fires in the U.S. this year all occurred in the Central Plains, while the mountain states, similar to Canada, were fairly quiet. However, it won’t take much for things to take a drastic turn.
Statistical breakdown
In the United States, the two largest wildfires this year are in Nebraska and Oklahoma.
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Morrill Fire 260,000 acres
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Ranger Road 114,000 acres
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Area burned to date: 776,500 hectares (10-year average is 439,000 hectares)
Status of 2026 wildfires in the US as of May 16
Eleven wildfires are out of control in Canada (six in British Columbia, one in Alberta and four in Ontario).
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Area burned so far: 5,600 hectares (10-year average is 229,200 hectares)
Although there will be some cooler weather near Texas in the near term, long-term models suggest a return to warmer than normal conditions in the central US corridor and drier conditions in the northern US
Current snow depth US/NOAA
(NOAA)
With these regions already at the center of some of the most worrying areas, it is starting to look like a ticking time bomb.
The good news, however, is that an active storm track remains over the southeastern United States, providing sporadic and localized relief to the worst drought areas from Arkansas to Florida. However, much heavier rainfall is still needed to bring drought conditions under control.
With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.